Making AI Headlines · Page 5
Bubble Timing Expert Explains Why He Is Not Already Rich
· New York time
A market columnist fielding questions about when an AI bubble might burst says that, if he knew the answer, he would make a life-changing leveraged bet. The response is less a market forecast than a reminder that knowing the precise timing of a reversal would be exceptionally valuable. The question is attractive because AI has drawn huge investment and intense expectations. A good story about a future market can make people want a date for the moment when enthusiasm turns. But a confident date and a reliable date are not the same product, even if both fit neatly into a headline. The columnist's imagined trade makes the incentive plain. Someone who truly possessed a dependable timetable would have an obvious reason to use it, rather than simply supply it to colleagues looking for a prediction. That does not establish that a crash is coming or that current prices are justified. It establishes only that the calendar is a difficult thing to sell with certainty. There is no shortage of people eager to discuss whether AI valuations are excessive. The missing item is the little square on the calendar that says exactly when everyone should change their mind. Until that appears, the most honest forecast may be considerably less entertaining than the question.
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