Making Financial Headlines · Page 3
Employers Add Jobs, Leaving Forecasts to Update Their Résumés
· New York time
US employers added 165,000 jobs last month, more than forecasters expected, and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, NPR reports, citing the Labor Department. The figures point to an improvement in the job market in the reported month. The two numbers offer related views of that market. The hiring figure shows how many jobs employers added, while the unemployment rate describes the share of the labor force without work and seeking it. Together they provide a broader picture than either number alone, though neither describes every worker's experience. The comparison with forecasts adds another layer. Economists make their estimates before the official figures arrive, so a stronger result means the actual report came in above what they had anticipated. It does not mean the forecast was itself a measure of hiring. For businesses and workers, the report is more than a contest between predictions and results. It provides a current measure of employment conditions and a basis for judging how the labor market is changing. For the forecasting profession, it supplies a fresh assignment: explain a number that has already appeared. The advantage belongs to the employers, who had the actual jobs all along. The forecasters must now return to their models, where the new number is welcome to join the meeting, provided it does not ask why it was not on the original agenda.
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