Making Financial Headlines · Page 6
Inflation report gets a forecast before it gets a number
· New York time
A US consumer price report for October is due Tuesday, with economists expecting the headline measure to rise 0.3% and the core measure to increase 0.2%. The figures will provide a fresh reading on prices after households and businesses have spent the month making decisions without knowing the official result. The headline consumer price index covers the overall measure, while core excludes food and energy. Both are watched because they offer different views of price changes. Neither alone describes every household's experience, since the effect on a family depends on what it buys. The forecasts are expectations, not the reported numbers. Once the data arrive, the comparison with those estimates can influence the immediate discussion, but the actual changes in prices remain the underlying news. A figure close to a forecast can still matter to people paying for necessities. Economic commentary has an elaborate greeting for every report: first guess the number, then compare the number with the guess. The grocery bill is less interested in the ceremony. It has already asked households to pay for the month while the experts prepare to announce how much the prices changed.
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